We publish a small number of tips each day, only where our probability beats the bookmakers' price. Each one is logged before the event and settled publicly.
1. Our probability
For each fixture we estimate the probability of every main outcome. For football this draws on recent form, expected goals (xG) for and against, home and away splits, injuries and suspensions, and fixture congestion. Tennis, NBA and NFL use the equivalent sport-specific data.
2. The market’s probability
Decimal odds convert into an implied probability (1 ÷ odds). We compare our number with the best widely available price.
3. Only the gap
We only tip when our probability multiplied by the odds is clearly above 1 — positive expected value by our estimate. That is the “edge” shown on every tip. Quiet days can mean no tips at all.
4. Staking
Stakes are 1 to 3 units, with bigger stakes only for the clearest edges. A unit is whatever fixed amount you choose — we suggest no more than 1–2% of a betting budget you can afford to lose.
5. Proofing and settlement
Every tip records its odds and the time it was published, before the event. Results are settled at those odds in the public results record, including losing runs. Published tips are never edited or deleted.
What we don’t do
- We don’t promise profit. Even good models have long losing runs.
- We don’t use words like “guaranteed” or “sure thing”.
- We don’t target anyone under 18.