Form
Both sides have already booked their place in the Nations League quarter-finals, so this game in Group A3 is about first place. Spain have won all five group games and lead on 15 points; England are three behind on 12. Spain’s recent results read like a team in full control: 3-1 at home to Czechia on 3 October, 2-1 away in Croatia on 6 October and 2-0 in Czechia on 12 November. Across their last five matches they have scored 14 goals and conceded five.
England have been just as productive in attack. They won 7-0 in Croatia on 3 October, beat Czechia 3-0 three days later and saw off Croatia 2-1 at home on 12 November. Their record over the last five games is four wins and one defeat, with 16 goals scored and four conceded, and that one defeat in the group came against Spain.
Team news
England are short in several positions. Kobbie Mainoo, Jordan Henderson, Jarell Quansah and Reece James are listed as injured, which takes away midfield control and a first-choice right-back. No Spain absences were listed in the previews we checked, but with qualification secured both coaches may rotate. Confirm the line-ups an hour before kick-off.
Key numbers
- Group A3 table: Spain 15, England 12, Croatia 3, Czechia 0.
- Spain finish first if they avoid defeat. England need a win to draw level on points.
- Spain: five straight wins, 14 goals for, 5 against.
- England: four wins and one defeat in five, 16 goals for, 4 against.
- One public model gives Spain a 55.7% chance of winning, the draw 22.3% and England 22.0%, with expected goals of 1.94 to 1.06 and a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals.
The market
Bookmakers make Spain clear favourites. DraftKings has Spain at 1.71, the draw at 3.95 and England at 4.10; Bet365 has Spain at 1.75, with the draw and England both at 4.10. Taking out the margin, the Bet365 prices imply roughly 54% Spain, 23% draw and 23% England, which is close to the public model. We found no reliable data on public betting percentages or money splits for this match, so we cannot say which way the professional money is leaning.
Our read
Spain at home, unbeaten in the group and needing only a draw, are the right favourites, and England’s injuries in midfield matter against a side built on possession. At 1.75 the Spain win is about fair rather than generous, so the more comfortable angle is Spain not to lose, which we rate at around 78%. Both teams score freely, and the model’s 61% for over 2.5 goals fits the way both have played this autumn. A dead-rubber feel for England is the main risk: if they rotate heavily, Spain’s price could look short by kick-off.