Austria v Ireland prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

Ireland +1.5 on the handicap at 1.52, rated low risk. The bet wins unless Austria beat Ireland by two goals or more.

Austria are rightly favourites at home in Vienna, priced around 1.62 to win. But the market for an Austrian win by two or more looks too generous. Ireland are unbeaten in their last three Nations League games, and the reverse fixture in October finished 2-2. We make Ireland +1.5 about 70%, which gives a fair price of 1.43. At 1.52 that is an edge of roughly 6%.

Form and numbers

• Austria are unbeaten in four Nations League matches this autumn, with two wins and two draws. Two draws in four tells you they are hard to beat but do not often run teams over.
• Ireland have not lost in three group games. Troy Parrott has scored four of their six goals and gives them a real outlet on the counter.
• The October meeting ended 2-2, so Ireland have already shown they can score against this Austria side.
• Both teams still have something to play for in the group, so Ireland should not roll over even if they fall behind.
• Under these terms a one-goal Austria win, a draw and an Ireland win all land the bet.

Risks

Austria have the better squad on paper, and at home they can press high and score in bursts. If they score early, Ireland have to open up, and a late breakaway goal could push the margin to two. Ireland lean heavily on Parrott for goals, so if he is quiet or misses out the attack looks thin. Check the team sheets before kick-off: any late absence in the Ireland back line would shorten our edge.

Odds may have moved since publication, so check your bookmaker’s price against our fair odds of 1.43 before betting.