Belgium v Italy prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

Italy to win (Match result) at 3.35, rated high risk.

This is the decider in Nations League Group A1. Italy and France have 10 points, Belgium 9. Belgium reach the quarter-finals only by winning, so they have to attack, and they do it without Thibaut Courtois (taking a break from international duty), Amadou Onana (ruptured ACL) and Zeno Debast (leg injury). Italy arrive in form after beating France 3-1 on Thursday. We make Italy about 31% to win, a fair price of 3.23, so 3.35 on the exchanges is roughly a 4% edge. Most bookmakers have Italy at 3.00 to 3.30, where there is little or no value.

Form and numbers

• Group A1: Italy 10, France 10, Belgium 9, Türkiye 0.
• Italy beat France 3-1 on 12 November; Belgium won 2-1 in Türkiye the same night.
• Belgium won the reverse fixture 2-0 in September, and they have three wins, a draw and a defeat in their last five.
• Belgium are also without Koni De Winter (declined the call-up) and Matías Fernández-Pardo (illness), and Loïs Openda and Fofana were left out of the squad.
• Italy are missing Manuel Locatelli and Federico Chiesa but have Federico Dimarco and Bryan Cristante back, with Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali and Moise Kean available.
• Prices: Belgium 2.05 to 2.18, draw 3.50 to 3.95, Italy 3.00 to 3.35.

Risks

A draw is enough for Italy to qualify, so they may settle for a point and sit deep, and a draw loses this bet. Belgium are at home, have Kevin De Bruyne and beat Italy comfortably two months ago. Exchange prices carry commission, which trims the edge. Check the line-ups, especially Belgium’s goalkeeper and Italy’s front three.

Odds may have moved since publication, so check your price against our fair odds of 3.23 before betting.