Cleveland Cavaliers v Dallas Mavericks prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

Dallas Mavericks +1.5 on the handicap at 1.85, rated medium risk.

This NBA game is priced as close to a coin flip, with both moneylines around 1.93. We think the schedule tips it towards Dallas. The Cleveland Cavaliers played in Miami on Friday night, lost 133-121, and now host the Mavericks with zero days of rest. The Mavericks arrive fresher. Taking the extra point and a half means Dallas win the bet with any win, or with a one-point defeat. We make that about 56%, a fair price of 1.79, so 1.85 gives a small edge of around 3.6%.

Form and numbers

• Dallas are 7-5 straight up and 7-5 against the spread this season.
• Cleveland are 6-7 straight up and only 4-9 against the spread, so the market has been overrating them.
• Both teams sit at a net rating of about +1.0, so on neutral rest the game would be close to even.
• Giving up 133 points in Miami on Friday points to a defence that was stretched, and the second night of a back-to-back rarely helps.
• The total is 231.5, which suggests a fairly open game rather than a low-scoring grind.

Risks

Home teams on a back-to-back still win plenty of games, and Cleveland have the talent to bounce back after a poor defensive night. This is a thin edge, so a late line move or one bad stretch is enough to beat it. Injury news can change the picture quickly, so check both teams’ reports before tip-off. If Cleveland rest anyone, the price should move towards Dallas and the value would fade.

Odds may have moved since publication, so check your price against our fair odds of 1.79 before betting.