Los Angeles Clippers v Charlotte Hornets prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

Los Angeles Clippers on the moneyline at 1.85, rated medium risk.

Both teams are struggling, which is why the market makes this NBA game close to a coin flip. The difference is in who is missing and who is trending. The Charlotte Hornets arrive at the Intuit Dome without Dennis Schröder and Kon Knueppel and have lost seven of their last eight. The Clippers are 3-8 and without Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram and Jordan Miller, but after losing seven of their first eight they have won two of their last three, including a 113-112 home win over Oklahoma City on Friday. We make Los Angeles about 56% to win, a fair price of 1.79, so 1.85 is roughly a 3.6% edge. One public model has the Clippers at 57.1%.

Form and numbers

• Clippers 3-8; Hornets 4-8.
• Charlotte lost 101-96 at Phoenix on Thursday and are on the road again.
• Beating Oklahoma City, even by a point, is the Clippers’ best result of the season so far.
• The spread is Clippers -1.5 and the total only 215.5, which points to a low-scoring game where home court matters.
• Charlotte lose two of their main ball-handlers in Schröder and Knueppel, which weakens their half-court offence away from home.

Risks

The Clippers’ injury list is long, and a 3-8 team can lose to anyone. Without Beal and Ingram, scoring can dry up for long spells, and a 215.5 total suggests neither side will pull away easily, so a late shot could decide it either way. The Friday win over Oklahoma City could also bring a flat follow-up performance on one day of rest. If any of the Hornets’ absentees are cleared to play, the edge disappears.

Odds may have moved since publication, so check your price against our fair odds of 1.79 before betting.