Minnesota Timberwolves v Chicago Bulls prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

Chicago Bulls +13.5 on the handicap at 2.04, rated medium risk.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are big home favourites at Target Center, and they should win the game. The question is the margin. With Anthony Edwards out with a knee injury and Donte DiVincenzo out with an Achilles problem, Minnesota lose their main scorer and a key rotation guard. A spread of 13.5 to 14.5 points asks a lot of a team missing that much offence. One public model has Chicago covering +13.5 about 59% of the time. We are a little more cautious at 57%, which gives a fair price of 1.75. At 2.04 the edge is about 16%.

Form and numbers

• Minnesota without Edwards rely more on half-court sets, which tends to slow the scoring and keep margins smaller.
• The model’s projected score is Timberwolves 123, Bulls 111, a 12-point win that still lands inside the number.
• The line varies between books: some show Chicago +14.5, so shop for the extra point.
• The total sits at 234.5, so this is not expected to be a defensive slog where every point matters less.
• Chicago are missing Caleb Wilson (hand) for an extended period and have several players listed with back and shoulder issues.

Risks

Chicago are on the second night of a back-to-back, and tired legs late in the fourth quarter are how big spreads get covered. If Norman Powell or other questionable players sit, the Bulls rotation gets very thin. Minnesota have one more night of rest and a strong defence at home, so a run in the third quarter could blow this open. Garbage time can help or hurt an underdog this big, which adds variance either way.

Odds may have moved since publication, so check your price against our fair odds of 1.75 before betting.