New Orleans Pelicans v Denver Nuggets prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

New Orleans Pelicans +10.5 on the handicap at 1.95, rated high risk.

The Denver Nuggets should win in New Orleans. The moneyline of about 1.18 says as much, and we would not argue. But double-digit road favourites do not always cover, and a public model has the Pelicans covering +10.5 about 56% of the time. We are more cautious at 53% because of the New Orleans injury list, which gives a fair price of 1.89. At 1.95 the edge is about 3.5%, which is small. Treat this as a value-seeking play, not a strong one.

Form and numbers

• Denver are 6-4 and 3-2 on the road, and they allow 113.3 points per game.
• New Orleans are 4-9, 3-5 at home, and have lost five in a row while allowing 125.6 points per game.
• The Pelicans are without Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi, Bryce McGowens and Trendon Watford.
• Denver are missing Julian Strawther (knee).
• The total is 234.5, and higher-scoring games give an underdog more chances to trade baskets and stay within range.

Risks

This is the riskiest of our free picks today. New Orleans are short-handed and on a losing run, and their defence has been poor all season. If Denver’s starters build a big lead early, the Pelicans’ thin bench may not be able to close the gap. On the other hand, a blowout often means Denver rest their starters late, which can bring the margin back. The edge is small, so a shorter price makes this a pass.

Odds may have moved since publication, so check your price against our fair odds of 1.89 before betting.