Toronto Raptors v New York Knicks prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

New York Knicks on the moneyline at 1.59, rated medium risk.

The Toronto Raptors host the Knicks at Scotiabank Arena badly short-handed. Scottie Barnes (groin), Kawhi Leonard (knee) and Nate Bittle (foot) are all listed out, and Kevin McCullar Jr. is day-to-day with an illness. That takes Toronto’s two best players off the floor. New York have lost two in a row, but both defeats were close: 106-104 at Indiana and 115-107 at home to Cleveland. We make the Knicks about 66% to win this NBA game, a fair price of 1.52, so 1.59 is roughly a 5% edge. One public model is slightly higher at 67.7%.

Form and numbers

• The Knicks are 6-6; the Raptors are 5-7 and 2-3 at home.
• New York allow 103.7 points per game, one of the better defensive marks in the league, and average 47.7 rebounds.
• Jalen Brunson averages 26.6 points and Karl-Anthony Towns 13.7 rebounds.
• Toronto have lost three straight: 123-112 at Philadelphia, then 98-93 to Boston and 118-102 to Memphis at home.
• The Raptors score 114.3 and allow 112.8 per game, with 10.6 steals a night, so turnovers are their main source of easy offence.
• The spread is Knicks -4.5 and the total 217.5.

Risks

Two straight defeats suggest the Knicks are not at their best, and a .500 team is not one to back blindly on the road. Toronto’s pressure defence forces turnovers, and short-handed teams sometimes play loose and fast with nothing to lose. If any of the Raptors’ injured players are upgraded before tip-off, the price would be fair at best. Check the Knicks’ own injury report too; no absences were listed when we checked.

Odds may have moved since publication, so check your price against our fair odds of 1.52 before betting.