Form
This is the decider in Nations League Group A1. Italy and France have 10 points, Belgium 9 and Türkiye none. Belgium must win to reach the quarter-finals; Italy go through with a draw, and top the group if they win or if they draw and France fail to beat Türkiye.
Italy come into the game on a high after beating France 3-1 on 12 November. Before that, their October games brought a 1-1 draw in France and a 3-1 win over Türkiye. Belgium won 2-1 in Türkiye on the same night Italy beat France, and they have three wins, a draw and a defeat in their last five. The defeat was a 4-1 loss in France in October. Belgium won the reverse fixture against Italy 2-0 in September.
Team news
Belgium are missing a lot. Thibaut Courtois is not in the squad because he is taking a break from international duty, Amadou Onana is out with a ruptured ACL and Zeno Debast has a leg injury. Koni De Winter declined his call-up, Matías Fernández-Pardo is ill, and Loïs Openda and Fofana were left out. Senne Lammens is expected in goal, with Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans in midfield.
Italy are without Manuel Locatelli, who has been injured since September, and Federico Chiesa is not in the squad. Federico Dimarco and Bryan Cristante are back, and Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali and Moise Kean are all available. Projected line-ups from previews are low confidence, so check the team sheets.
Key numbers
- Group A1: Italy 10, France 10, Belgium 9, Türkiye 0.
- Belgium win: they reach the quarter-finals, and top the group if France also fail to win.
- Italy unbeaten: they are through.
- Italy beat France 3-1 three days ago; Belgium beat Italy 2-0 two months ago.
- Belgium’s last five: three wins, one draw, one defeat.
The market
Belgium are favourites. Prices for a Belgium win range from 2.05 at William Hill to 2.18 on the Smarkets and Matchbook exchanges. The draw is 3.50 to 3.95, and Italy are 3.00 to 3.35. Both teams to score is around 1.53 to 1.62, and under 2.5 goals is about 2.15. Some bookmakers show Belgium as high as 2.60, which looks like a stale price rather than a real move, so treat it with caution. We found no reliable public betting or money split data for this match.
Our read
The market is pricing Belgium on reputation and home advantage. With their first-choice goalkeeper and two key defenders and midfielders missing, and a need to chase the game, they look vulnerable to an Italy side that just took France apart. We make Italy about 31% to win, which makes the 3.35 on the exchanges a small value price. Lower prices at the bookmakers, around 3.00 to 3.30, are close to fair. A cagey draw is the main threat, because that result suits Italy.