Form
France go into the final round of Nations League Group A1 on 10 points, level with Italy and one ahead of Belgium, after a 3-1 defeat in Italy on Thursday. Before that they had been tidy rather than spectacular: 1-0 in Türkiye in September, 1-0 in Belgium, 1-1 at home to Italy and a 4-1 win over Belgium in October. That is eight goals scored and five conceded in five games.
Türkiye have nothing left to play for. They have lost all five group matches, scored three and conceded 13, and are already relegated from League A. Their most recent defeat was a 2-1 at home to Belgium on Thursday, and before that they lost 0-1 to France, 1-4 to Italy, 0-3 in Belgium and 1-3 in Italy.
Team news
Confirmed line-ups were not available when we published. The game is in Bordeaux. With Belgium hosting Italy at the same time, France cannot afford to rotate heavily: a defeat combined with a Belgium win could cost them a top-two place. Türkiye may use the match to look at fringe players, which tends to help the favourite. Check the official team sheets an hour before kick-off.
Key numbers
- Group A1 before the final round: France 10, Italy 10, Belgium 9, Türkiye 0.
- France in the group: 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, 69% average possession, 15.6 shots per game.
- Türkiye in the group: 0.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game.
- Three of France’s five group games finished with three goals or fewer.
- The reverse fixture in September ended Türkiye 0-1 France.
- Earlier meetings: France 1-1 Türkiye in October 2019 and Türkiye 2-0 France in June 2019.
- One public model gives France an 82% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Türkiye 7%, with 2-0 the most likely score.
The market
France are heavy favourites. Bet365 has France at 1.17, the draw at 8.50 and Türkiye at 13.00. The goals markets lean high: over 2.5 is 1.29, over 3.5 is 1.73 and under 3.5 is 2.00, while Fox Sports shows under 3.5 at 2.04. Both teams to score is 1.83 either way, and France to win to nil is 2.10. At 1.17 the France win is about fair against our numbers, so there is no value in the match result. We found no reliable data on public betting percentages or money splits for this game.
Our read
France should win. They have the stakes, home advantage and far more quality, while Türkiye’s defence has leaked goals all autumn. Where we disagree with the market is the size of the win. An over 3.5 price of 1.73 implies a better-than-even chance of four goals or more, yet France have only once scored more than one goal in this group. A controlled 2-0 or 3-0 looks more likely than a rout, which is why we prefer under 3.5 goals at 2.00 or better. The main risk is an early French goal that opens the game up against a side with nothing to play for.