France v Türkiye prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

Under 3.5 goals (Total goals) at 2.04, rated high risk.

Bookmakers price France at 1.17 to beat Türkiye, and the market expects goals: over 3.5 is around 1.73 to 1.75. That implies a better-than-even chance of four or more goals. France’s Nations League record does not fully support that. In five group games they have scored eight and conceded five, about 1.6 goals per game for and 1.0 against, and three of their five matches had three goals or fewer. We rate under 3.5 at about 52%, a fair price of 1.92, so 2.04 is a small edge.

Form and numbers

• Group A1: France 10 points, Türkiye 0 and already relegated.
• France in the group: 1-0 in Türkiye, 1-0 in Belgium, 1-1 with Italy, 4-1 against Belgium, 1-3 in Italy on Thursday.
• Türkiye: five defeats, three goals scored and 13 conceded.
• The reverse fixture in September finished 0-1.
• One public model puts France’s win chance at 82% and makes 2-0 the most likely score.
• Prices: under 3.5 at 2.04 (Fox Sports) and 2.00 (Bet365).

Risks

France need a result to be sure of the quarter-finals, and with Türkiye playing for nothing a rout is possible: four goals for France alone loses this bet. Türkiye concede 2.6 goals a game, so a France total of three is realistic, and a single Türkiye consolation goal on top of that would also take the match to four. Line-ups had not been confirmed when we published, so check whether France start their strongest forwards.

Odds may have moved since publication, so compare your price with our fair odds of 1.92 before betting.