Boston Celtics v Dallas Mavericks prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

Boston Celtics -13.5 (Handicap) at 2.02, rated high risk.

Boston are 10-2 and have won four in a row, including blowouts of 123-101 in Philadelphia and 119-80 in Charlotte. Dallas lost 117-127 in Cleveland on Saturday night and now play the second game of a back-to-back, with travel, in one of the toughest buildings in the league. We make Boston about 53% to win by 14 or more, a fair price of 1.89, so the best available 2.02 is a small edge of roughly 7%.

Form and numbers

• Boston: 10-2, four straight wins, winning margins of 22 and 39 points in their last two road games.
• Dallas: 7-6, coming off a ten-point loss in Cleveland less than 24 hours earlier.
• Dallas centre Daniel Gafford is out with a facial injury, which weakens their rim protection and rebounding.
• Betting interest is almost even, about 51% to 49%, so the line is not inflated by public money.
• Tip-off is 6pm Eastern, 11pm UTC.

Risks

Double-digit spreads leave little room for error. Boston will rest starters if the game is decided early, and late bench minutes can trim the margin under 14. Dallas have enough shot-making to keep it closer than the betting suggests, and fatigue does not always show up in the scoreline. A late Boston rest decision would change the picture completely, so check the injury report before tip-off.

Odds may have moved since publication, so compare your price with our fair odds of 1.89 before betting.