Washington Wizards v Houston Rockets prediction, odds and betting tip

The pick

Houston Rockets -8.5 (Handicap) at 2.02, rated high risk.

The Rockets arrive in Washington with a 10-3 record and three straight wins. The Wizards are 4-9 and have lost their last five. The spread sits at 8.5 to 9.5 depending on the book, and the best price on Houston -8.5 is 2.02. We make the Rockets about 53% to win by nine or more, a fair price of 1.89, so 2.02 gives a small edge of around 7%. We would not take the bigger -9.5 line at a shorter price.

Form and numbers

• Houston: 10-3, three wins in a row, the latest 125-118 at home to Utah.
• Washington: 4-9, five straight defeats.
• Houston are without Fred VanVleet, which takes some ball-handling and shooting off the floor, but their record has been built without him.
• Public betting is split roughly 56% to 44% in favour of Houston, so this is not a heavily crowded side.
• The line has been quoted at both -8.5 and -9.5, so shopping for the lower number matters.
• Tip-off is 7pm Eastern on Sunday, which is midnight UTC.

Risks

A nine-point spread on the road is a lot to cover in the NBA. If Houston build a big lead, they may rest starters in the fourth quarter, and garbage-time scoring can cut the margin to single digits. The Wizards are young and can get hot from three at home. Houston also won by only seven against Utah, one of the league’s weakest sides, on Friday. Check the injury report before tip-off for late absences on either side.

Odds may have moved since publication, so compare your price with our fair odds of 1.89 before betting.